Thursday, May 9, 2013

Whose votes will AAP cut?


People are wondering that when AAP stands for elections, whose votes will it cut?

Elections are won by buying of votes more than ever before. This trend of purchasing votes is increasing, election by election, by all parties. By 2019 elections, vote buying as well as religious and caste voting will be at an unprecedented high. May be, because of the Anna movement and heightened awakening in the populace, there is a window of opportunity in the next 2014 elections for ethical politics. Missing this opportunity will be terrible for India.

BJP calls AAP a B-team of Congress, while Congressis call AAP as B-team of BJP. We must be doing something right to be accused by both :). When Indira Gandhi was asked whether we leaned towards USA or Russia, she said "neither, we stand firm". That is my answer to these accusations. We believe that Congress in its 60 years of rule has completely messed up the nation. While, there has been growth, the performance has been much less than the potential of India. India has grown not because of the government, but, in spite of it. We do not think that BJP is an alternative or solution to Congress.

Status Quo can not be acceptable. The poor, dispossessed, unequal and discriminated are facing the brunt of miseries that can be set right by good governance. Changing players is not the solution; we need to change the rules of the game. The present system does not have the ability to make India a humane, caring and developed nation.

I call the Indian democracy model Monarcracy - winning elections with democratic means, but once they get elected, they become Kings and Queens. BJP is as corrupt as the Congress. When Gadkari said that "We do their 4 works and they do our 4 works", it became obvious that BJP, Cong and other parties are bhai-bhais. While, the naive citizen may think that there is a ruling party and separate opposition parties, we know now with experience, that all politicians work together in business. They get elected probably as different parties, but once elected, they work together for making money.  The adage is true "The closest friend of a politician is from the opposing party, while his worst enemy is from his own party". I know of a major MLA candidate of BJP who does compromise with the Congress MP of the area. He does not canvass against the MP in his Vidhan Sabha area, and the MP ensures that a weak opponent is pitted in the Vidhan Sabha election against the BJP candidate. That is the kind of tie-ups that are prevalent between parties.

Congress revealed that it had collected around Rs 2000 crores as official money for which they do not know the source. These were cash received from people, which was less than Rs 20000 each for which name, address and PAN is unavailable. This essentially means that cash or unaccounted money was shown in this manner. BJP revealed around Rs 950 crores in the same manner. That is the difference between the two. Congress has had more opportunity, which is why they have a bigger amount.

There will be a good away swing of votes from BJP towards AAP.

Generally, it is believed that the urban, middle-class, educated people who have generally been voting for BJP might shift to a more sensible and non-corrupt AAP. These voters have been the main constituent of the anti-corruption movement and it is believed that they would form the core of the voters of AAP. While it is true that these people who are sick and tired of the present parties will vote for AAP, it is not all.
There are millions of voters who do not have allegiance towards BJP because of its hard religious Hindutva agenda or its agenda of Ram Mandir, Article 370 etc. These voters do not like that agenda but still vote for it because it is less corrupt, with less nepotism, is more development oriented and do not appreciate the appeasement policy of the Congress. I used to be one of those voters.

These voters will now have an option for voting for AAP. So, it would essentially vote for a clean party with an excellent leader like Arvind Kejriwal, a party dedicated to fight against corruption, transparency, accountability, participation, decentralization and integrity. It can be rid of parties that are corrupt nor criminal.

But, the bigger swing is going to be from the Congress.

A very large part of the Congress voters are OBC, SC, ST, Dalits, Muslims, Christians (around 72%). For decades, they have been frightened by Congress leaders. These leaders say that in BJP rule there will be riots and it will be difficult for these communities to live. In 2009, just few days before the Maharashtra assembly elections, Congress leaders reached the madrasas, mosques and churches and told the priests that they it was correct that congress was corrupt and that their Congress candidate was bad. But.....the community had to choose between a bad, corrupt Congress where at least they could live in peace or a communal party, where their life would be in danger. Thus, out of lack of choice they vote for the Congress. Congress gets votes because of TINA factor. TINA means "There is no alternative".

Once, AAP comes in the fray, this 72% voters who do not like BJP, will have a much better choice.
Besides this, there is a large voter base (in some areas more than 40% voters) that do not vote because none of the candidates excite them. A lack of good choice makes for low turnout. AAP can give a good alternative and we believe that a large number of new voters or voters who do not generally come out to vote, will. In a normal election, AAP does not have much hope of winning. But, if there is a wind or wave of patriotism close to the election, then voters will come out in large numbers with India's flags and shouting "Bharat Mata ki Jai", apprehending the vote buyers and propelling voters towards a new India. 

39 comments:

Aashish said...

A good write-up on the prospect of
votebank, confusion and miseries of people. Votes should be a by product of good work carried on by the party towards betterment of the society,AAP right now going on proper track. I hope it will keep up its momentum.

Asit kumar Mohanty said...

i also completely agree,but the organisation needs to be spread to the every villages. India is very poor and uneducated country. Many still never heard about kejriwal and AAP. it will take time, but within 3-4 year it will definitely emerge as big force in indian politics(iff it is continue to grow at current rate). All stakes are there at Delhi election 2013. AAP has to do well,otherwise people of other state will not show confidence on AAP.But i am still positive.Let's hope for the best.
Jai Hind

Anonymous said...

Yes... AAP is the only one alternative

rhn said...

Agreed to the core! More than cutting votes, #AAP would also force the current political system to introspect, if it wins Delhi big. Delhi win is a must and loss is not an option.

Shoaib Khan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Shoaib Khan said...

True...This is what i too believe that more congress voters will vote for AAP than BJP voters. People who earlier didn't had any option and who hated BJP were forced to either vote congress, other UPA alliance partner or did not vote at all. With AAP these people will now have an option.

Anonymous said...

Let the BJP and Congress go to hell ,Aam Aadmi Party Jindabad

Neeraj said...

Yeah, I see a point there. Mayankji congrats for writing this blog and await few more from you and others. If it happens it would be A DREAM COME TRUE. The other day I watched first mohalla sabha in Khichdipur, Delhi by the AAP counseller and it was a treat to watch. As it demonstrated the concept of Swaraj practically. I am going to vote for AAP , though I have been Congi always.

Girish Mailar said...

Mayank. We need to raise national issues with local issues so that we can spread our party base.

Girish Mailar said...

Mayank. We need to raise national issues with local issues so that we can spread our party base.

Anonymous said...

AAP is a B team of congress. Khujliwal is in bed with MMS.

Anantha Rao said...

Once, AAP comes in the fray, ..... EC has already published calendar... so why don't AAP publish its calender instead of telling "when AAP comes in the fray".... then start working towards goal of winning. More than winning vote share matters at lot. Sends a warning signal to all parties.

Anonymous said...

Mayank sir, i am supporter of AAP earliar i was like BJP bcoz it is less corrupt n central or core team has some value for country. they raise voice of also for hindu (not agree with ram mandir issue) agnst appeasement/fake secularism. i & lakhs of young voters like this. m giving u my feedback. coz m living in sourrounding of AAM AADMI. if AAP will also do appeasement for GREED of MUSLIMS VOTE than me and lakhs of voters who like AAP will stop following AAP. so m rqsting u. dont do thee kind of acts. in future also. coz HINDU & Muslims both can make AAP bigger, Better not a single one. one more thing on current issue Statement of AK sir,missing always. oter parties said on this that they dont speak anything, they dont have views etc.

plz consider my opinion,..its is your support base voice.

Bharat Mata ki Jai,
Vandey Matram

Karan said...

Mayank sir, i am supporter of AAP earliar i was like BJP bcoz it is less corrupt n central or core team has some value for country. they raise voice of also for hindu (not agree with ram mandir issue) agnst appeasement/fake secularism. i & lakhs of young voters like this. m giving u my feedback. coz m living in sourrounding of AAM AADMI. if AAP will also do appeasement for GREED of MUSLIMS VOTE than me and lakhs of voters who like AAP will stop following AAP. so m rqsting u. dont do thee kind of acts. in future also. coz HINDU & Muslims both can make AAP bigger, Better not a single one. one more thing on current issue Statement of AK sir,missing always. oter parties said on this that they dont speak anything, they dont have views etc.

plz consider my opinion,..its is your support base voice.

Bharat Mata ki Jai,
Vandey Matram

Shyam Chaturvedi said...

AAP SHOULD COME OUT WITH A VERY CLEAR VISION FOR 2014 AND ALSO CLEARLY STATE IN WHICH STATES IT WOULD BE CONTESTING !

Shyam Chaturvedi said...

AAP SHOULD COME OUT WITH A VERY CLEAR VISION FOR 2014 AND ALSO CLEARLY STATE IN WHICH STATES IT WOULD BE CONTESTING !

Anonymous said...

wish it was as simple as that. Congress majorly gets vote for the huge populist spending (read NREGA etc.) and it would be difficult for AAP to attract the 72% voters with its only corruption agenda. What it will majorly end up doing is eating BJP votes which will make Congress even more stronger. Look at what happened in Karnataka - KLP finished BJP.

S V Subramanian said...

Now the main issue is how many seats can AAP contest to be a viable alternative. To my mind, AAP can become the conscience keeper of Politics rathet than the Power Wielding Party. With a presence of about 40 to 50 Members, we can do miracles to change the mindset of the other MPs. We may even become the King Makers in case of a Hung Parliament which is expected in 2014.

Harish Dewan said...

hmmm...Delhi will be an eye opener. Only worry is again congress should not come back to power. Reason for my worry is since now so much corruption has happened ppl might thing not to vote for congress, so votes may get divided between bjp or AAP. now say out of 10, cong manages to get 4 so remaining will be 6 which will get divided between bjp and AAP. so say each gets 3-3 ..and again cong gets majority 4 and again same corruption.

Subhash said...

I am 40 years old and have never voted in a state or national election. But if AAP fields a candidate, I will make sure that I vote in that election.

Anonymous said...

Sir, I have been a die hard supporter of BJP but after reading through your blog, I have got few doubts in my head. I agree with you that a lot of votes would go away from Congress and I have noticed how Muslims are tweeting Pro-AAP tweets, still my BJP bosses are hell bent against AAP.

I am trying to understand their intentions, but it is not making sense. Also media and corporates are against AAP. Why is everyone hating this 6 month old party!

The only answer that I get is that AAP will break this corrupt system. I will try to take this up with fellow BJP supporters and see what happens. Thanks for clarifying my mind.

Anonymous said...

Need of the hour is friendly alliance for elections and thats the ideal route for AAP as you do not have the wherewithal to fight 2014 elections nation wide all alone. But the mute question is who would you ally with. You have brushed all of them on the wrong side.

Subodh Rawat said...

Very well written....I am hoping AAP will play a decisive role in next General elections

BIJAYA MEHER said...

Dear Mayank sir thanks for the good analytical post...but here as u hv mentioned that the sure votes of Congress are 72% (SC,ST,OBC,CHRISTIAN,BUDDHIST,MUSLIM). Its also the right time to think that what are the main reasons that the major part of voters vote congress but don't vote BJP...

India is a country of many religion and divided in different caste and communities..who have there own leaders for upliftment,equality,fraternity,justice,peace.AAP needs to respect them and give the activists of the great idols equal chance to participate in the war of devlopement and representation.

Only representing one ideology like M.K GANDHI will not attrect and attech Aam Aadmi.


Anonymous said...

U r shameless citizen trying to justify ur lethargy and now making excuses for not voting.Ppl like u shld be penalized and charged mor tax so that ur life become hell.u moron.

brij b said...

After Delhi vidhan sabha election ,AAP will decide the next programme of election in states & also parliament. It is early to say that in which state AAP will fight after Delhi election.

Anonymous said...

Share your agenda also for 2014. It's good to pin point congress/bjp faults but at the same time also show how u are going to handle these issues. We would like to see your manifesto az well

Anonymous said...

Mayankji, Great information! I am sure it is eye-opening to many blind lovers of BJP & Congress. BJP focused more on Hindu & Ram, this has made all other religion people to attract to Congress. BJP politicians and Congress politicians never filed RTI/PIL against each other. Both refuse to come under RTI. BJP and Congress playing like "reality tv shows", fooling innocent people of India. I hope, this time our country people realize this hard facts and support and vote for AAP. It will be disaster if AAP does not win. I take opportunity here to plead all the different religious/cast friends to support AAP. This is the only alternative left for us to live like Humans once again.

Jai Hind!


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Anonymous said...

very nice written mayank gandhi ji

Anonymous said...

WE need to target a heterogenous vote base without a distinction or without being geographically isolated to a particular region....

tiwariravindra77@gmail.com said...

Mayankji very good article and completely agree with you but we have seen war level promotional activity for AAP only in Delhi. after you win Delhi election , there will be little time left for parliament election. So Pan India promotion should start immediately otherwise your aim to form Government at center and pass Lokpal Bill will not be realised this time and you have to await another long 5 years which unfortunately patriotic indian is not ready to wait. You can not depend on Delhi election success only

Anonymous said...

To be realistic... the country as of now does not have any option but BJP. they might not be white doves but then no one including AAP has the reach and presence country-wide and with there (AAP) declared agenda, they can not align with any political party. So that only leaves Modi and BJP. Voting AAP will only risk the country getting another congress rule.

Sabyasachi Ghosh. said...

I think for Delhi 2013 Fight will be between BJP & AAP for No.1 & No.2 positions as Congress reputation is so bad that it will finish 3rd. As my feeling is that BJP will win Delhi & AAP will be No.2 ( Main opposition party in Delhi), not bas considering it was launched few months ago. Regarding seats i think AAP will get around upto 20 seats which will be good start for Newly formed Party. Good Luck to both BJP & AAP Congress Should be dumped by delhi voters.

Sabyasachi Ghosh said...

PPL have seen enough of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi , Manmohan Singh & Sheila Dixit enough of these leaders ppl have seen , so fed up with above leaders delhi voters for Nov.2013 will turn towards BJP & AAP .Arvind Sir has inspired us all & Delhi 2013 Fight will be between BJP & AAP , so good luck to both these parties & Congress Bye Bye from power( Indians have seen enough of ur Bad governance). Winner of Delhi 2013 will be either BJP or AAP .

designGeek. said...

How you can say "Non-currupt AAP".

I don't thing its' true until you can prove it.

You stop putting Bharat Mata for Muslim. Say Inqallab Zindabaad when Muslim people not like Vande Maatram.

You can sell your ******* when Muslim want it.

Am I right, Yes, I am Hindu and What you thing the problematic Speech that every people on your team given in Public. Abusive hinduism in public and Muslimism proposal in public.

Is this what you refer to "AAP". If you have answer to this I would like to hear.

The nationalism and secularism doesn't means Gave every penny for Muslim and full RESERVATION to them.

Sumit Arora said...

I will do my best to support AAP, and let everybody aware about AAP as much I can with the only one objective : This november AAM ADMI Party will win all the seats of Delhi Vidhan Sabha. (100% seats, All 70 Seats)

Anonymous said...

Its completely unpredictable and very difficult for AAP to get decent number of seats. I like their agenda of corruption free system, but the way Mango People vote is a mystery.

A new issue come at the last moment and whole equation will change and we have the fully paid media.

Whatever it will be, the Delhi election will decide the future of AAP.

-Jai Hind

Diptanu sinha said...

Aap ne Kejriwal saab Ki asli Chehra sabki Samne layi hai .